DFSC Commentary During the Great Recession – Fall 2008

Dear Clients:

As the U.S. economy continues to limp along at the end of the third quarter, there is a conflict between the obvious recessions in the housing and financial services industries versus other sectors of the U.S economy that appear to be performing moderately better. The world economy, which had heretofore outperformed the U.S. economy, is now declining at an accelerated rate and the international markets are following suit.

Martin J. Whitman, Co-Chief Investment Officer & Portfolio Manager of Third Avenue Value Fund, gave his shareholders this commentary on the third quarter: “Distress securities seem to be trading at ultra-attractive prices. Discounts have widened appreciably for the common stocks of very well-capitalized companies where the common stocks trade at meaningful discounts from readily ascertainable net asset values (NAVs); and where the prospects appear good that over the next five years, such NAVs will increase by not less than 10% per annum compounded. Admittedly, near-term outlooks are generally poor.”

As we enter the fourth quarter, it is questionable if the markets will significantly rebound between now and year-end. The past 10-year performance numbers of the S&P and the Dow may end up being the worst rolling ten-year average since the Great Depression. With that having been said, there is growing confidence that, as we approach the end of the cyclical decline, we will enter into a period of cyclical expansion. From past observation, we have noticed that from the bottom of one economic cycle to the top of the next – typically a 5 to 7 year timeframe – the rewards for participating in that cycle have been about 100%.

As we look to the future, there is some room for optimism, just as blue skies tend to follow poor weather.

Sincerely,

David W. Demming, CFP®

Should You Buy or Lease a Vehicle?

Americans love their cars, and automobiles typically rank as one of the highest expenses in a family’s budget. That’s why many financial planners help their clients make automobile decisions.

And there are many decisions to be made: Should you lease or own? If you own, should you buy new or used? Should you finance the purchase, or pay cash? The answer depends, as it usually does when it comes to financial matters, on your personal circumstances.

Take the decision of whether to lease or buy. People think of leasing as simply renting a car, though it’s much more complicated than that. Leasing essentially means paying for a car’s depreciation during the length of the leasing contract—typically two to four years—plus finance charges and other fees.

Leasing was very popular in the 1990s—at one point, consumers leased four in ten vehicles. Leasing’s popularity has waned some in the last two years as dealers have pushed new-car specials, but you’ll still find rabid supporters of leasing. In broad terms, leasing works best under the following circumstances:

  • You like to drive late model cars versus driving the same car for a decade.

  • You don’t drive more than 10,000 to 15,000 miles a year, the limit typically imposed by the contract.

  • You use the vehicle for business, though recent law changes make the tax benefits less clear-cut between leasing and buying.

  • Your family takes good care of vehicles.

  • The car is more likely to depreciate, not appreciate, in value.

  • You have good credit.

Even if these criteria match your circumstances, consider one other thing: Leasing is complicated and not always as it appears. The down payment and the monthly payments are usually significantly lower than buying a comparable new car. But there are upfront costs such as acquisition charges, security deposits and so on, and there may be potential backend charges such as an early termination fee or “excessive wear and tear,” the determination of which is up to the dealer and with which you may not agree.

And there’s always that excess mileage charge waiting in the wings. You may feel confident that you won’t exceed the mileage limit, but circumstances may change—and excess miles are very expensive.

Owning has its pros and cons, too. Owning the car longer than the loan payments is usually a good financial—and psychological—deal. You also can put any resale profits toward buying a new car. With leasing, you’re always making car payments, yet you never end up owning it.

On the other hand, the car you buy may depreciate in value far more than you anticipate; whereas the amount of depreciation is locked into a lease deal—the dealer takes the risk. You may end up owning the vehicle beyond the warranty, which could mean you have to pay for costly repairs—something you’re not likely to do when leasing.

If you decide to buy instead of lease, you have another key decision to make: Should you buy a new car or a used one? Many experts say the best deal is to buy a car that’s one or two years old. A brand-new car usually loses the largest percentage of its value in the first two years. Right now, the used-car market is overstocked, which means better deals. A trade-off, of course, is that the first years of the warranty are already gone when you buy used.

Whether new or used, should you pay cash or finance? Few people can afford to buy a brand new car with cash. But often the more cash you can put down, the better. An all-cash deal, for example, may allow you to negotiate a better price, and a larger down payment means you end up paying less in finance charges.

On the other hand, with interest rates so low—some deals offer zero-percent financing—it might pay to finance if you can invest the cash you don’t pay toward the car payments at a higher-earning return than what you’re paying in finance charges.

Clearly, the decision whether to buy or lease a particular vehicle can mean hundreds and often thousands of dollars in potential savings if you take the time to run the numbers before jumping into your dream car.

Watch Out for These Mortgage Mistakes

Many families today have more wealth tied up in the stock market than in their homes, but a home remains an important financial asset. That’s why it pays — sometimes big dollars — to avoid some of the following mistakes involving the home mortgage.

Assuming you should have a mortgage. Most of the time you’re financially better off owning a home than renting — you can never pay off rent, employers and lenders like home owners, it’s forced savings, there are tax advantages and so on. But sometimes it pays to rent if you plan to move in two or three years, find interest rates too high or expect home prices to decline in the near future.

Not understanding the different types of mortgages. A straight-forward 30-year fixed-rate mortgage may be just the ticket for you. Then again, an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) might make sense if you expect to live in the house only a few years or you need the lower first-year rates compared with a fixed-rate mortgage so you can afford to buy. Normally there is a discount for shorter-duration loans, especially 15-year ones.

Not shopping around for a mortgage lender. Amazingly, people shop for food bargains involving a few pennies, but don’t bother to shop around for a mortgage lender that involves thousands — potentially tens of thousands — of dollars. Lenders can vary significantly in interest rates and fees. Ask your real estate agent, call around to lenders, or check the web.

Failing to get pre-approved for a mortgage. By having a mortgage pre-approved (versus merely “pre-qualified”), you have a better chance of the seller either coming down in price or accepting your bid over a buyer who is not pre-approved.

Assuming it’s best to prepay. Putting in extra money toward the principal each month on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage, for example, might pay off the loan in 20 years and save thousands of dollars in interest. But there are several issues to consider before deciding, so you should talk them over with your Certified Financial Planner®.

From a financial standpoint, it might be better putting that extra money into investments likely to pay a higher return than the interest rate you’re paying on your mortgage. For example, large-company stocks have historically averaged around 11% a year, while paying off a mortgage early would be equivalent to investing in an asset returning the mortgage rate — say 8%. (Actually, a comparison should be made in after-tax dollars, since you receive a tax deduction for interest paid, which essentially lowers the interest rate you’re paying.) On the other hand, there is no guarantee your stock investments will return 11%, while paying off the mortgage early is a sure thing. Also, many people find it psychologically comforting to pay off their mortgage early.

Using biweekly mortgage plans. Some mortgage companies have plans in which homeowners make house payments every two weeks instead of once a month. At the end of the year, the homeowner has made the equivalent of an extra month’s house payment, which cuts a 30-year mortgage down to 25 years. The problem is, the plans charge an up-front fee and a biweekly administration fee. If the company doesn’t charge a prepayment fee, just write an extra month’s rent each year and save the fees. For this reason we generally do not recommend this practice.

Continuing to pay private mortgage insurance. Homeowners who pay less than 20% down typically are required by the lender to pay for private mortgage insurance (PMI), which covers the lender in case of default. The federal Homeowners Protection Act now requires lenders to automatically terminate these policies once the loan balance declines to 78%. The Act was created because many homeowners continued to pay for PMI even when it wasn’t needed. The problem for current homeowners, however, is that the Act generally applies to homes bought on or after July 29 of this year. If you’ve paid off at least 20% of your equity, ask your lender to drop the PMI.

Assuming it’s not worth refinancing. Homeowners often think it’s not worth refinancing unless they can drop their mortgage rate a couple of percentage points. Yet a lot depends on the tax bracket you’re in, the size of the mortgage remaining, refinancing costs and so on. Run the numbers.

Financial Advisor vs. Financial Planner

What is the difference between a broker and an investment adviser? How about a financial adviser and a financial planner? Many people use these terms interchangeably, yet in reality there are distinct differences. The distinctions are important because these financial professionals have different responsibilities under various federal regulations.

An investment adviser gives advice to others about what securities to buy and sell. A broker executes trades for clients. Also Brokers are held to a different standard than registered investment advisers. Investment advisers must abide by the rules of the Investment Act of 1940 which legally obligates them to act solely in the best interests of their clients and are held to a fiduciary standard of care. Brokers, meanwhile, are regulated by FINRA, which imposes a “suitability standard” rather than the stricter fiduciary standard. This simply means an investment sold by a broker must be suitable for the client.

Adding to the confusion are the interchangeable titles used by financial firms. Brokers may be referred to as a registered representative or stockbroker. Investment advisers may hold themselves out as financial planners. The term “financial adviser” often is used both by broker-dealers and investment advisers.

Financial Adviser is a generic term that is most commonly used by both brokers and investment advisers. Financial professionals holding themselves out as financial advisers are not held to a fiduciary standard of care unless they are an investment adviser.

A fiduciary is a person who has established a relationship of trust and confidence in managing the assets for the benefit of another person rather than for his or her own profit and who is expected to act in the best interest of the client.

A financial planner is also a generic term; however, some financial planners have credentials like Certified Financial Planner®, a designation received from the Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards upon completion of their certification program. The program involves a pre-requisite of three years’ experience in the profession plus a curricula of study in five comprehensive areas, culminating in a ten-hour exam similar to the CPA exam. To keep this designation, 30 credit hours of continuing education must be completed every two years, which must include an ethics course. A CFP® is held to a higher professional standard and has a fiduciary responsibility to his clients.

An investment advisor must be registered with either the state or the Securities & Exchange Commission. It is not a professional designation; it’s a registration. By registering as an investment advisor, the individual or firm accepts fiduciary responsibility.

Demming Financial Services Corp. is a full-service financial planning firm and an independently registered investment advisor with the SEC. We have three registered investment advisor reps who have obtained the CFP® certification and who are committed to the fiduciary standard of conduct in serving our clients’ best interests while fulfilling regulatory requirements.

Borrowing from Your Home’s Equity

Home equity lines of credit are the most consistently low-cost way to borrow money. HELOCs are contingent upon net equity in one’s home, less any primary mortgage. They can be up to 80-100% of available equity in a home. Interest is generally tax-deductible up to $100,000, with extensions for utilizing the funds for home improvements or investment purposes. However, tax deductibility will be reduced if a borrower is subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax.

Interest rates can vary. Thus, as the prime lending rate fluctuates, so does the actual cost of the loan. We recommend prime minus 1%, with prime minus ½% also an acceptable cost of borrowing.

For example, with today’s prime rate of 7.75% minus the 1%, the interest rate is 6.75%. A borrower can pay interest at that rate, plus any principal payment they choose. Thus, a $50,000 home equity line would cost .563% per month (6.75% divided by 12 months), or $281.25, of interest alone, with any larger payment applied to principal.

The higher one’s marginal tax rate, the lower the effective cost of borrowing.

To illustrate –

  1. If a borrower were in the 25% tax bracket, the annual cost would lower to 5.063% net after tax, assuming one could itemize. [6.75% minus the 25% tax benefit (or 1.687%) equals 5.063%.]

  2. Similarly, for a borrower in the 35% tax bracket, the annual cost would lower to 4.388% net after tax, assuming itemization. The bottom line is that home equity lines of credit are the most consistently low-cost way to finance short-term cash needs, including car purchases.

The bottom line is that home equity lines of credit are the most consistently low-cost way to finance short-term cash needs, including car purchases.